First, complexity manifests itself in the form of counterintuitive results. That is, we do all these things for a reason -- like doing one's homework before watching pointless youtube videos -- or maybe no reason at all, and good things come about because of them. Conversely, we may do other things because we want to or they are fun -- like drugs or eating McDonalds -- and then are surprised when things don't work out well. Now this dynamic leads to all kinds of pointless arguments such as, "My friend did everything right and got cancer," or "My cousin dropped out of college and made a billion dollars," and maybe those stories are true, but that's not the way to bet.
Second, arguments divorced from political reality -- or more likely, from a carefully selected reality -- are the currency of today's politics, which explains why it is so impoverished. What is the antidote for this poverty? Jesus said that a tree is known by its fruits, which is so significant that this insight is developed twice in the New Testament:
"Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep's clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves. Ye shall know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles? Even so every good tree bringeth forth good fruit; but a corrupt tree bringeth forth evil fruit. A good tree cannot bring forth evil fruit, neither can a corrupt tree bring forth good fruit. Every tree that bringeth not forth good fruit is hewn down, and cast into the fire. Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them." Matthew 7:15–20 (KJV)And
"For a good tree bringeth not forth corrupt fruit; neither doth a corrupt tree bring forth good fruit. For every tree is known by his own fruit. For of thorns men do not gather figs, nor of a bramble bush gather they grapes. A good man out of the good treasure of his heart bringeth forth that which is good; and an evil man out of the evil treasure of his heart bringeth forth that which is evil: for of the abundance of the heart his mouth speaketh." Luke 6:43-45 (KJV)This is a timeless truth, many of which abound in the Holy Bible, but they also exist in the secular world as well, three of which I will mention here. Baruch Spinoza, a contemporary of John Locke (they were both born in 1632), wrote memorably sub specie aeternitatis, or "take the long-term view." Now there are some intellectuals who are dismissive of taking the Bible seriously, and to them I would direct them to Donald Knuth's Things a Computer Scientist Rarely Talks About, which is based on his lectures on his lectures on faith and science at MIT in 1999. Finally, I was talking with Jay Forrester about these topics and he told me to concentrate on the tension between the short and long-term, and many can appreciate the former but few the latter.
Third, the reality we all confront is sufficiently complex that it cannot be described in a few catch-phrases. In fact, when I see a car festooned with multiple bumper stickers, usually the advocate leftist causes because the driver believes reality is simple and can be captured by catchy phrases. I interpret the Bible as a collection of insights from parents who love their children and are trying their best to pass on cultural wisdom to prevent them from making catastrophic mistakes. The best way to do this is through stories that are retained by the human mind. Detractors call these stories "myths," but its their correspondence to timeless truths that determine their worth, and the fact that the Holy Bible has stood the test of time helps confirm their worth.
Finally, we have an opportunity to investigate these timeless truths with modern tools, as Knuth starts to do, though the average academic will find this idea ludicrous, so it's not clear who the audience would be for this work. However, the first-rank philosophers have been trying to answer these questions for century with unaided cognition and logic, so it makes sense to revisit these timeless topics with the more capable toolkit available today. This is the project and promise of complex conservatism.
