Security World Tour

With Michael Flynn having just retired from the Army, going on the talk shows, and criticizing Barack Obama, the policy community is worried that a person fresh from wearing the uniform is speaking out. However, as head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), Flynn is well informed about the threats facing the United States and the American world order. America, as the world center, tends to focus inwards with an inordinate preoccupation with domestic politics. However, there is a whole world of international politics out there that normally escapes the attention of many Americans. The question then becomes, how to organize a systematic study of the wide world of international politics?

Following Flynn’s lead, I choose to organize it around the key security threats to America. First is the Islamic State, which goes by three names: (1) the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or ash-Sham (ISIS); (2) Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL); or (3) the loose Arabic acronym for ISIL, al-Dawla al-Islamiya al-Iraq al-Sham, Daesh. Already the language lawyers say that ISIS and ISIL are “offensive” because it implies that the organization is Islamic when most Muslims find it abhorrent, but other analysts make a pretty convincing argument that ISIS/L is very Islamic. However, the Daesh phenomenon is not geographically limited to only Iraq and Syria but extends its relationships throughout the Middle East through its funding relationships, which include Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Also, there is a relationship between Daesh and Al Qaeda that leads to additional systemic complexity and geographic relationships that extend across North Africa.

The second major security threat concerns the newly aggressive Russia. Now there may be some who are a little bit not “up to speed” on the current situations and who make think that while the old Soviet Union was a problem, but the new Russia is not. However, that is not the case. First, there is an undeclared war going on in the Ukraine with Russian “little green men” separatists fighting against a western leaning Ukraine government. Second, this is not the only example of such a war with previous examples including the Crimea, Georgia, and Chechnya. Third, unbeknownst to most Americans, there is a significant information operations campaign being waged within Russia against the US and NATO. On Twitter, just search on #nato and #hato for minutes of fun, and then search Youtube for “RT,” which stands for “Russia Today,” and you can find some first-rate propaganda that explores whether WWIII has already begun.

The third major security threat concerns America’s strategic economic partner China, or more accurately the People’s Republic of China (PRC), what some have called an “existential threat,” meaning it threatens the very existence of the United States. There are multiple intriguing aspects to the PRC including security threats in the Pacific, ongoing trade imbalances with the United States, cyberwarfare, and development practices throughout the world, including Africa. All of these relationships are fraught with tension, so China will continue to be a source of security concern for the foreseeable future.

Finally, there is the southern border with Mexico, which is a source of Democrat votes, cheap Republican labor, drugs, and ongoing security issues. Recently a US helicopter was shot down near the border, which probably caused no end of consternation on the part of the Obama administration. Why this is a cause of consternation is a matter to be considered at another time. However, these four international actors – Daesh, Russia, China, and Mexico – provide a starting point for an ongoing series of international analyses.